I stumbled upon this story today from Reuters about how many Japanese people are selling their gold. It seems that, at today's high prices, they want to cash in while they can.
Because of this trend, this makes Japan a net exporter of gold for six years in a row!
Why would anyone want to sell gold (real money) in exchange for worthless paper? These people selling their gold haven't a clue as to what they are doing.
(Reuters) - For Eriko Ebina, standing outside a downtown Tokyo medical equipment store that has a side business buying gold, the recent surge in prices for the precious metal was just too tempting.
"For more than 30 years, I kept gold jewelry mother bought for me, and with media saying prices are high, I thought I would sell them now except for a few keepsakes from her," said Ebina, in her 60s.
"I earned more than I thought they were worth. I'm not interested in buying gold."
It is sellers like Ebina who will offset surging investment into gold funds in Japan, which should make the country a net exporter for the sixth year in a row.
The assets of Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corp's physical gold exchange traded fund (ETF), Japan's first backed by metal stored in the country, have grown by a quarter since end-July to 21.8 billion yen ($284.9 million) as of August 23.
"Investors are seriously treating our gold ETF as a legitimate asset class, just like investing in equities, bonds and currencies," said Osamu Hoshi, deputy general manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust.
"They see a need to diversify their assets after seeing volatile moves in currencies and stocks and others," Hoshi said.
There is a serious disconnect here. Hoshi says that people need to diversify their assets, yet they sell their gold? And what do they buy? Stocks? Bonds? Paper currency?! Oh yeah, those have done especially well over these last 20 + some years.
What do they say, "A fool and his money are soon parted."
A downgrade of the U.S. sovereign debt rating amid a deteriorating outlook for the world's largest economy, as well as a spreading European debt crisis, have triggered a rush to gold that has boosted prices by 14 percent this month.
Yeah... For people like this dumb lady who sold her gold, they need to wake up and smell the coffee...She doesn't need to sell her gold, she needs to hold on to it... For those of you who don't have any gold or silver, you need to buy it.
It's the only asset that has done well over these last ten years.
Just had a friend in China tell me on the phone that the rumor is that central bank of the Chinese Republic (PRC) is going to start buying heavily into physical silver - and demanding delivery - starting first thing tomorrow am. This rumor is going around financial circles in China, Shanghai and Hong Kong and it is also rumored that this will be a process that starts slowly beginning tomorrow May 9, 2011.
Parabolic rises are traditionally followed by a price drop reflecting the rise. But, traditionally we didn't have massive USD debt, money printing, QE2 (QE3 will be announced before summer) and, the big one; we didn't have a publicly announced policy by the People's Republic of China to buy precious metals.
The resurgence of silver's price could be tomorrow.... At least that's what my little birdie tells me.
Could it be that I am being manipulated to spread disinformation? I doubt it. There are only 5,000 readers a day to this blog.... You'd think they'd go somewhere else if they wanted to spread hype.... Or maybe they are.
My personal opinion is that it is now the time to get back into the pool and start buying. If the price continues to drop, dollar cost average your price out. Silver is not going too much lower and the fundamentals (since 2008) haven't changed.
I would like to point out that, even after the recent drop in silver's price, if you live in Japan, and wanted to buy small amounts of silver, had you listened to my advice, you'd have done OK even with the recent 10% silver price drop.
Perry Como - Silver Bells
(Thanks to Max Keiser for the idea of putting silly music videos in my blog. "Soon it will be Christmas time!!!!")
I think I need to write an explanation as some people seem confused as to what this blog is about. It is specifically about "Media, Marketing and Japan." And, since this is Japan, when I talk about some subjects like "food shortages" or water rationing, I am talking about Japan. (By the way, don't want to get on that, but water is still being rationed in Tokyo nearly 2 months after the great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami to one bottle per person, per day).
Now, sometimes I do write about investing and buying precious metals and stocks. I get all giddy when I stumble into what seems like an easy money maker and I want to tell everybody. That happened recently with a post entitled Buy Silver at $1 Dollar Over Spot But Do it RIGHT NOW! In that blog, I recommended that people buy at a site that I had found an error on and was selling silver one ounce rounds at a mere $1.13 over spot price. I told people that if they were going to buy one ounce rounds, then to buy them now as the site would block the sales when they opened for business the next morning. The site blocked the silver sales the next morning as I predicted they would.
Of course. Most people don't run businesses to lose money.
But, this blog is still about Japan. It seems that I must constantly remind people about that. If you don't live in Japan, then my advices on buying precious metals, etc. might not be so useful to you as your tax and exchange rates are vastly different. I am not licensed to be giving anyone any legal or financial advice. I do give tips and I do recommend places to shop or buy. Especially when it comes to buying silver or gold in Tokyo.
28 kilogram and up bars of silver have no margin markup in Japan -
Anything smaller has a huge markup.
Like I said, I do love telling people an easy way that I found to make some extra money. I did that in the late 1970's when I found out the Hunt Brothers were trying to buy up all the silver. I took all of my measly savings out of the bank and bought all the kilograms bars of silver I could. I don't remember exactly what the silver price was, but it seems to me that I bought at around $7.48 an ounce. I loaded them all up in my car (worried that they were too heavy) and went home. It seems that it was only a few months (it might have been more than a year - I was always high in those days) later that I sold all of those kilogram bars at about $44 an ounce! All I really do remember clearly was that after it was over was "Wow! That was easy!" and that
I was 18 year old kid &
had a check for over $16,000 dollars in my hands that I knew I had better cash immediately. Which I did.
Was it genius that I made this trade? Nope. Just simple reading the newspapers and listening to what people were saying.
I've been very lucky enough to make some good money on deals like this several times in my life. These kinds of "Easy money" deals don't come too often. Many years later, I made a killing on Citibank and the first Gulf War. Can't remember which came first.
I cashed in big time on the first Gulf war because George Bush I, and everybody else, said that Saddam Hussein's Iraqi military was the world's #4 mightiest military (remember?) Bush and the rest of the US "Leadership" went on TV and announced that we were going to bomb the Iraqi military for at least month.
I wondered why they broadcasted this information. "Gee... Talk about giving away the plan and a giveaway of money!" I thought. I looked up what company was the largest supplier of jet plane fuel to the US and UK forces and found out that, at that time, there was really only one company that did that and that companies name was Occidental Petroleum.
Once again, I took out almost all of my savings and bought all the Occidental Petroleum shares that I could. I think they were $11 dollars or so a share. Within one month, after Schwarzkopf said that bombing the Iraqi's relentlessly was yielding lower and lower returns, and that they'd have to invade, I sold all my stocks.
I profited about over $20,000 on that one. Not bad for a months work. So did my two friends who actually listened to me. (Well, then, just like now, I only had two real friends!)
Was it genius that I made this trade? Nope. Just simple reading the newspapers and listening to what people were saying. Anyone could have done it. Trust that there were many who did.
I raked in the bucks on Citibank too when it fell to around $9 dollars a share.. I bought all I could. I traded back all those Citibank shares at over $30-some a share within a short time for a Japanese company that I felt was more stable. Glad I did that.
Genius? Nope. I think Citibank was the first of the "Too big to fail" banks... I just read the papers and listened to what people were saying.
Now, when I recently recommended that people in Japan stock up on food and water and begin buying precious metals (even when many other's are warning about Japan's debt and even after the food shortages after the big Tohoku earthquake) in Japan's Financial Armageddon is Coming in 60 Days? I get attacked by naysayers. In that last article mentioned, I wrote about my past track record on recommending silver and gold as savings and a hedge against inflation:
If you had taken my advice, you would have easily more than doubled your investment in gold and taken over a 520% profit on silver. It's still not too late to get into gold and silver but a price correction is coming so wait a bit.* There will be no price correction on food. Stock up now, while you can.
I wrote that a price correction was coming in silver and, like a miracle, silver dropped 10% in value about 2 hours after this was posted. I bragged about that timing by adding this comment:
*Note: A few hours after the posting of this article (check the dates and times) the price of silver dropped almost 10%.
Nevertheless, one reader seemed to want to nit-pick and wrote:
Of course, the fact that you were also screaming for people to buy just a week ago at around $49 near the top of the parabolic move is mighty impressive, too.
This reader was referring to Buy Silver at $1 Dollar Over Spot Price but Buy it Right Now! an article which I posted whereby I was recommending to people to take advantage of an error on Perth Mint's web page. They were selling silver at $1.13 over spot price. I defended my position by writing:
I was pointing out that I had found an error on Perth Mint's web page that was still selling silver at a mere $1.13 dollar over spot price. The title of the article is: "Buy Silver at $1 Dollar Over Spot But Do it RIGHT NOW!" That's pretty simple to understand what the sales point was there, isn't it? It's not about current price, it's about buying and cutting the sales margin you have to pay. The point was the price over spot! I also mentioned that they would correct that error by morning, which they did.
That reader got mad and said something like (I'm paraphrasing):
"(A few dollars dealer margin doesn't matter!) Which is more expensive, a $49 dollar sale with a $1 dollar margin or a $45 dollar sale with a $3 dollar margin?"
What this person fails to realize is that he is considering this from a foreign perspective and with 20/20 hindsight. Of course total cost must be considered. That's why my advice is right and his will always be a day late and a dollar short.
A) No one knew that the price of silver was going to drop to $45. It could have just as well gone up.
B) With that, I told people to buy at the $1 dollar margin. Because, even at the high of $49, a $1 dollar margin is unheard of (unless you buy 1,000 at a time).
C) But I knew for a fact, that a $1 dollar dealer margin is a steal that cannot be matched a protects me from a, say, 8 ~ 10% price drop when you consider that others will charge $5 dealer's margin on a $49 dollar purchase.
D) At $49 with a dollar margin (in obvious error) I told people to buy. After the site in question found their error and deleted it, thereby killing any opportunity to buy at a $1 dollar dealer's margin, I told people to hold off and not buy. Why pay a 10% margin on silver when I thought the price of silver was pretty high?
E) Buying at $49 with a $1 dollar margin is $50. Anywhere else was selling at $54. I tell people to buy at the cheaper price and somebody thinks that is bad advice?
F) If I could predict the future, I wouldn't be buying precious metals, stocks, or commodities, I'd be at Vegas on the Roulette wheel. This reader criticizing my advice with hindsight is, like I said, either disingenuous or dishonest. Hindsight is 20/20.
G) Of course, why I get irritated at some people for making frivolous comments about what I write is that there are some people who do take my advice to heart and I don't think they like it - nor do I - when others make out-of-context remarks attacking my money advice. Some of us have families and I, for one, do take this stuff very seriously. You'll also see below where I do put my money where my mouth is.
Now I will demonstrate to you why, even after the 10% drop in silver prices, that my advice was pretty good advice for people living in Japan who might have an interest in buying silver in small sizes (even though I have always recommended buying larger than 28 kilogram silver bars). Some reasons I recommended buying the silver at $1.13 over spot price because:
1) Silver had gone down for three days in a row. No one knows if it will go up or down the next day.
2) One thing we can be absolutely sure of is that the regular price over spot for silver recently is anywhere between $3.50 to $5.00 per ounce over spot. Usually buying one ounce at a time will cost you about $4.65 ~ $5.00 an ounce dealer's margin (that is the huge difference -and deciding factor - between buying now and waiting in this case).
3) It is a remarkably safe bet that, even though you won't know if tomorrow's price is higher or lower, you know you won't buy silver again at $1.13 over spot.
4) At buying with the usual dealer's roughly $5 dollar margin, as compared to a one dollar margin, you could handle a roughly 6 ~ 8% drop in price and still make out fine.
Now, let's examine the numbers and bottom line in my advice. You be the judge.
The price that the Perth Mint was selling on their web page was $46.82 Australian Dollars (AUD). $46.82 (AUD) was about $50.19 (USD) on April 25, 2011. That means a one ounce silver round bought at a US dealer on that day would have cost you about $55 each!
I had just told people to hold off on silver as I expected a drop. When it dropped, I crowed about it. He was angry.
This guy totally misses the point. I am talking about silver buyers in Japan, not the USA. For USA advice, read your local investment adviser's page.
I was talking about cashing in on a dealer error whereby he was making a mistake on calculations about dealer's sales margins. But let's look at the facts.
In spite of all that very bad news for silver, the damage was not so bad to silver buyers who follow my recommendations in Japan. Here's why:
Take a look at the chart below that shows the silver prices for yesterday May 3, 2011. You can see that a 1 ounce round sells in Japan for ¥5145 each.
CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW
The chart below shows what ¥5,145 yen is in USD. It comes to $63.47 (about).
CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW
The price of silver, per ounce, at this very moment is $41.30
CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW
I'm even giving and advantage in calculations to the current date. At the time of the writing of my article, the price of silver was nearly $2 dollars an ounce higher than it is now (important to remember as my point of buying the silver 1 ounce rounds had to do with price over spot). This means that, even with this drop of over 10%, the margin over spot price, if you bought 1 ounce rounds in Japan, the dealer margin mark-up would have been about $22.17 each 1 ounce round!
You folks in the west might find this unbelievable but that's the way it is in Japan. Silver 1 ounce rounds command a massive markup margin in this country. I recommend buying larger than 28 kilogram bars from Tanaka in Ginza.
But when you:
1) Don't have an extra $40,000 (USD) laying around; and you believe that silver will continue to rise; and you want to buy small amounts; and you want to take the advice of someone who has shopped and compared; then you know that's you might want to buy overseas.
2) If you decide to buy overseas, you know that you cannot economically order just one 1 ounce coin. I've written before about ordering at least 15 to 20 at a time (to save on shipping, taxes, etc.)
3) Understanding #2 above, and the fact that no one knows whether or not the price will rise or fall the next day, but we can recognize an accounting and Internet error that is only charging $1.13 over spot, then you can surmise that;
4) Jumping on the $1.13 over spot is not "just saving a dollar or two" but equals savings of anywhere between a minimum of $50 ~ $100 dollars or more depending on the buyer's order (I think, you'd have to be foolish to order under 15 rounds). So, while you folks in the west think the margin of a dollar or two is no big deal, that's only because you are completely unfamiliar with how things are done here in Japan. The price difference in my case, when ordering a "large" amount overseas, must be considered accounting for dealer's margin.
5) Westerners might think that a "$2 ~ $3 margin doesn't matter" but that is just plain foolish. It matters a lot. Where do you buy items for $48 and do not care if the dealer charges you a 2% margin (as in $1.13 per unit) or $4 dollars or more per unit (8% ~ 10%)? It is ridiculous to even think so for a moment. I hope the people who do think this way are not in charge of company finances.
6) A dollar here, a dollar there, they add up! Especially when we are talking about the sales margin on dozens and dozens of these items.
Had you ordered, say, twenty-nine one ounce rounds from the Perth Mint like I did (enough to fill one silver round coin tube with seven more to top off another that was partially filled) during that short window I recommended; and with the price of silver dropping to today's level, here's where you would be standing right now:
Twenty-nine one ounce Koala silver rounds including handling, taxes and shipping by FEDEX to Japan was ¥126,195.32. That comes to a price of ¥4,351 yen each silver one ounce round.
Putting my money where my mouth is. Here is a screen capture of my order of twenty-nine one ounce silver Koala rounds from Perth Mint made on the day in question.
And, as I wrote in the blog, it was obviously a mistake on the Perth Mint's part. I made the prediction that they would find the error and remove it first thing the next day. They did. And that item is not listed on sale even now, almost ten days after my initial post pointing out the opportunity to buy. For proof of that, see the below and the web page selling these items (though I do expect that the 2011 one ounce Koala's will be back soon at a much heftier price):
CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW
Screen capture of Perth Mint's silver Koala rounds page a of 10 am on May 4, 2011. Note that there are no 2011 one ounce Koala silver rounds available at Perth Mint website - or even listed. So even if you did want to buy them after the price drop, you can't. They are no longer on sale.
Now, let's look at the price of silver in Japan, if you bought those same twenty-nine silver one ounce rounds at today's price in Japan, you'd have paid ¥5,145 yen each (they were ¥5,485 on April 25, 2011). That price includes dealer's margin. That total would come to: ¥149,205 + tax. You'd have ultimately paid ¥156,665 yen for twenty-nine rounds.
If you took my advice and bought, when I pointed out the opportunity, like many of you wisely did, you would have spent ¥126,195.
The bottom line is that, even with the recent 10% drop in silver prices, had you listened to my advice, you pocketed for yourself about ¥30,000. Thirty thousand Japanese yen is about $370 (USD). How many silver one ounce rounds could you buy with an extra $370 in your pocket? Even at Japan's outrageous markups, you could have bought at least 5 one ounce silver rounds for that money. That is a fact. Not prediction.
Yes, there are other places selling silver now that might be cheaper than the price I mentioned before the recent silver drop. But no one can predict the future. Anyway, folks, when you find a dealer selling a product at a mere 2% markup against other dealers that are taking 4 to 5 times - or more - that amount. That is money in the bank. Take the deal when you can get it. No one can predict the future.
I cannot control tomorrow's prices, but I know when I find a steal and a dealer making a mistake.
Even with the price of silver dropping 10% recently, if you bought the silver I recommended at Perth Mint on April 25th, 2011 you still made out pretty well as all buying of any equities, stocks, or precious metals comes with a risk.... My recommendation greatly softened your risk of a downside by cutting out a huge part of it.
Anyone who doesn't recognize this shouldn't be buying precious metals or any other investments for that matter.
The bottom line is that dealers are charging anywhere between $3.50 ~ $5.65 margin per silver ounce. In most cases, you get only the $3.50 margin if you buy more than 1000 units. I had found a place that was selling small amounts for $1.13 over spot. If you capitalized, you did well and cushioned your fall on silver's recent drop. The difference between $1.13 and $5.00 is nearly 400%. That's a big deal!
A few dollars does matter greatly especially when you are talking about a 2% dealer's margin or a 10% dealer's margin. A 2% sales tax would be welcomed by most people - or at least, not grumbled about by the majority. But a 10% margin (sales tax) would be fodder for huge public grievances.
Only a fool thinks otherwise. Fools and their money soon part ways.
In investing there are no sure things, but when you find a huge error in your favor and it's a sure thing, you'd be wise to take it.
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PS: The recent silver price drop and drop in precious metals represents a buying opportunity. I strongly suggest that if you only buy small amounts, that you buy gold. As gold has a very small dealer's markup in Japan. In Tokyo? I think Tokyo Kikinzoku Jiganten in Okachimachi is the best place.
If you buy silver, try to buy only 28 kilogram bars from Tanaka in Ginza. Understandably, most people aren't walking around with $40,000 in the pockets... or the rest of us, there is other ways. Read this.
Is the financial Armageddon coming soon? Many people are now warning that it is inevitable. I agree. It may not be in 60 days, but I think it is coming Autumn 2011. I'm not sure, but things are lining up poorly so I think you had better get prepared. This is a warning.
People should listen to my warnings. I warned people in October of 2008 to buy gold and silver and to stock up on food (click the links for proof). At that time, gold was $724.08 an ounce (today gold is $1562.30) and silver was $9.11 an ounce (today silver stands at $47.40).
If you had taken my advice, you would have easily more than doubled your investment in gold and taken over a 520% profit on silver. It's still not too late to get into gold and silver but a price correction is coming so wait a bit.* There will be no price correction on food. Stock up now, while you can.
*Note: A few hours after the posting of this article (check the dates and times) the price of silver dropped almost 10%.
After the big Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, when the stores shelves were bare for a week or so (and no one knew at the time how things were going to turn out on the food and water situation) my family was fine; we had 6 months of food and water, enough for 5 people, stocked up and ready to go. When people panicked and ran away from Tokyo or when they were fighting for parking spaces at the local grocery store, or fighting for bottles of water, I only watched and shook my head in disbelief.
How can people be so gullible and foolish? How can people be so negligent and irresponsible not to be prepared?
The repercussions of the Japan earthquake and tsunami followed by the nuclear accident has created shock waves throughout the world. Throw that on top of the soon-to-come collapse of the Euro...
Either preceded or followed by the collapse of the US dollar....
A lot of people predicted an economic calamity after the earthquake and tsunami. But, now some are saying it didn't happen. The fact is that the earthquake and tsunami are blips on the screen in the overall picture of the world economy.... But taken together with the information contained in the videos above, and they stat to cause one to consider.
Consider the Euro zone and the US dollar - along with Japan's aging problem and public debt problems - in the context of the repercussions for the business world of the Japan disaster. For a small example of how the Japan calamity is affecting foreign nations and companies, consider the fact that Japanese cars manufacturers have closed many of their plants as they are unable to obtain parts.
On initial inspection, this doesn't seem to be such a problem. But these plants, and including Japanese plants in the USA, employ tens of thousands of people. Now, what about the satellite businesses that deal with cars? The list is long, but here's two easy ones; Tire makers or service stands? What about other businesses that cater to auto worker employees? How about them? Home manufacturers, clothes makers, shoes manufacturers, the entertainment sector, banks, credit card companies, etc., etc.?
Now, consider the fact that nearly ever company must file their quarterly business report, well, every quarter. That means that the earthquake occurred on March 11... Let's just use March 30th as an easy calculation... This means that all of these corporations will show the effect of the Japan disaster - added to an already overloaded world economic crisis - and you just might have one more straw added to the camel's back... Could it be the straw that breaks the camel's back?
I don't think so. But throw on the extremely high probability of a Greek, Irish and Portuguese default on public debt and the ground swell rumors now abounding that Spain and Italy are next ( and are "Too big to bail") then you have a serious problem.
Let me give you fair warning again. Especially if you live in Japan:
1) Store up enough water for at least 2 months (6 months preferable) 2) Fill your bathtub with water every night (if water stops you can use for cleaning) 3) Today or this week, buy at least 2 months of canned food (6 months preferable) 4) It is still not too late! Start saving money every month by buying gold and silver. If you have some savings, take 33% of it out of the bank and buy gold. Take the other 33% and keep it at safe place at home.
It looks like we are headed for some really rough times. Better be prepared to stay out of the way.
If you want to find the best places to buy gold and silver, search those keywords on this blog's search function. I've warned people so many times up until now, that I'm tired of linking to it over and over.
Will people pay attention this time? If history is any guide, the answer is "No!" Readmore..
